Forget AR8 — is the UK prepared for the clean power already on the way?

A system caught between ambition and uncertainty

UK energy policy sits in an uncomfortable place. Ambitious long-term targets remain on the table, yet day-to-day signals often feel inconsistent. Delays, reversals and half-steps have left businesses, investors and consumers unsure whether the transition is accelerating or quietly losing momentum. The reality is more complicated. The direction of travel is broadly intact, but the system is under strain from misalignment, credibility gaps and unresolved trade-offs. We discuss this in episode 3 of Beyond Curious Season 5.

How Clean Power 2030 has already reshaped the system

At the centre of the current debate is Clean Power 2030. The target to largely decarbonise the electricity system within this decade has become a focal point for policy and investment. Whether it is fully achievable is now open to question. The graph below shows the level of investment required to meet the capacity ranges included in DESNZ’s Clean Power Action Plan.

Installed capacity in 2030 under DESNZ and LCP Delta Clean Power scenarios

Even if GB falls short of Clean Power 2030, the target has already reshaped the system; offshore wind, solar and storage capacity have expanded rapidly. Currently, there is 17GW of installed offshore wind in Britain, and a further 20GW either already had a contract or received one in this year’s record-breaking AR7 (published after the recording of the podcast). Whilst that still leaves a gap to meet the range set out by DESNZ in the Clean Power Action Plan, it does mean that whatever happens next, that within a few years, the UK will have abundant wind and will likely face periods when low-carbon generation exceeds demand.

That success in bringing forward this investment brings its own problems, including curtailment, rising grid constraints and misalignment between generation and demand. Building more renewable capacity alone is no longer enough; the system now needs flexibility, coordination and smarter demand.

Abundance is no longer hypothetical — it’s imminent

Currently, there are very few periods where we have “too much” low carbon power on the system, literally just 2% of hours do we find ourselves with not enough demand to absorb this clean power. These periods subsequently offer opportunities for cheap power to either be stored, exported, or to provide signals to households or industry to increase demand.

Regardless of what policy decisions are taken in the next few years with regards to deployment of renewable energy, even in an extreme scenario where a UK government restricts further investment, we already know from the projects already awarded contracts that we will have 27GW of offshore wind on the system in 2028 (that excludes the bumper set of AR7 contracts, which will be operational in 2030 / 31). That leaves us to consider the impact of “residual load” on the energy system.

Simply put, residual load is the difference between electricity demand and the combined output of wind and solar. It shows how much power the rest of the system needs to provide once renewables are accounted for. This is crucial because it helps us understand the composition of our energy system. If we look forward to residual load in 2028, with the 27 gigawatts of offshore wind already in place and more being added, LCP Delta’s modelling output below shows several periods where residual load is negative, meaning we have more renewable energy than demand. For example, in 2025, we might see renewable surplus in about 2% of hours, but by 2028, that surplus could increase to around 15% of hours and of sizeable quantity, we could see periods with over 16GW of “excess” renewable power. Roughly speaking, one out of every six or seven hours will have an excess of renewable energy in just two years, with renewables that are already committed.

This projection shows that the energy system we’re building is naturally moving toward a scenario where flexibility, demand-side response, and storage become even more valuable. This isn’t just about political influences or policy changes; it’s the direction our power system is heading naturally.

We need an energy system that not only can manage that level of clean power but make best use of this abundant resource whether through demand side flex and both short and long duration storage.

Building renewables is the easy part — using them well is harder

Batteries have been the primary beneficiary of this new phase of the transition, with capacity rising from 1GW in 2020 to more than 11GW by 2025 (LCP Delta, Spark). Growing offshore wind volumes have also pushed government attention toward longer duration storage to manage potential wind droughts, and the new Cap and Floor mechanism for LDES has already been oversubscribed. But while supply side flexibility is scaling rapidly, the retail market has not kept pace. The question now is whether innovation on the demand side is developing quickly enough to make full use of this abundant clean power.

In GB, price signals remain relatively muted, especially for households, limiting incentives to shift demand. Uptake of electrification assets such as EVs and heat pumps — technologies that could soak up surplus clean power — has also been slower than expected. With periods of negative pricing likely to become more common within just a couple of years, the real question is whether we are doing enough now to prepare consumers to participate. That brings us to the next challenge: how quickly the demand side can adapt.

Flexibility must now scale as fast as generation

There are promising examples of responsive demand management in the UK, but they remain the exception rather than the norm. OVO Energy’s Charge Anytime smart charging service automatically schedules EV charging into periods of higher renewable output within a customer-defined window. It marks a clear step away from static off-peak tariffs towards automated demand shifting. However, it still insulates households from half-hourly wholesale price signals, smoothing volatility rather than exposing it. Early trials under OVO’s Power Move Flex initiative have gone a little further, rewarding customers for offering greater scheduling freedom, and hinting at how more genuinely dynamic participation could emerge.

By contrast, on the continent we are already seeing business models where exposure to real-time prices is treated as a feature rather than a risk, such as 1KOMMA5°. Its model combines wholesale pass-through pricing with automated control of EV charging, heat pumps and home batteries, allowing households to absorb surplus power precisely when prices collapse. Volatility is not smoothed away but harnessed, with software doing the work that attention and willpower never could.

A whole system transition demands whole system thinking

Electrification of transport and heat depend on a power system that is reliable, affordable and flexible. Storage, networks and digital infrastructure now sit alongside generation as critical enablers. From an investment perspective, the opportunity set has widened but so has the need for clarity. Treating the transition as a whole system, rather than a collection of individual technologies, is increasingly unavoidable.