Europe’s green hydrogen pipeline exceeds 100 GW by 2030, but market headwinds could mean only a third will be realised

Energy transition Hydrogen research Net zero

Gabrielle Heal Hydrogen Research Manager

Europe's green hydrogen market has hit a significant milestone, with planned electrolysis capacity reaching 103 GW by 2030, a 24% increase from the 2024 data snapshot from HYbase, LCP Delta's proprietary European clean hydrogen projects database. However, LCP Delta warns that only up to a third of that capacity (30 GW) will likely materialise unless current challenges are addressed.

LCP Delta's latest European Green Hydrogen State of the Market Report, published today, shows that real progress remains slow. Only 5% of the capacity planned to be commissioned in 2024 materialised, and just 1.8 GW of electrolysis is currently under construction. However, 517 MW is under construction with planned commissioning in 2025, signalling that the live capacity market could finally pass the 1 GW milestone this year.

From 2028 onwards, momentum is expected to build as we approach key 2030 policy targets, particularly across six key markets: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Denmark and the UK. Currently, Spain accounts for the largest market share in 2030 (25%). However, investors haven't forgotten the recent burnt fingers for BESS investors, and recent green hydrogen noises from the government around windfall taxes have cooled interest for some. Of these leading markets, only two are on track to reach the targets set out in their National Hydrogen Strategies: Denmark and the Netherlands. Ultimately, 70% of planned capacity across Europe remains 'high-risk' without confirmed funding or offtake agreements in place.

LCP Delta also highlights a growing disconnect between electrolyser manufacturing capacity and market growth. The current manufacturing capacity of the top 10 manufacturers assigned to planned European projects (12 GW) – such as Plug and Siemens Energy – is 30 times larger than the live electrolysis market in Europe. This imbalance is already affecting OEMs, as eight of the top ten manufacturers restructured, halted production capacity, or underwent workforce reductions over 2024 because of slow project execution.

Despite these challenges, some encouraging trends are emerging. Ammonia, methanol, iron and steel are emerging as the leading industrial offtakers for green hydrogen. By 2030, these three sectors are expected to drive 55% of all industrial hydrogen demand linked to electrolysis projects, with ammonia production making up 24%. Refineries are leading less capacity, but these are some of the most advanced projects, highlighting existing users of grey hydrogen as best placed to kick-start the early market. Industrial users will play a crucial role in scaling the market, accounting for 85% of electrolytic hydrogen demand by 2030.

Positive outcomes from hydrogen support schemes shaped the past year, with results expected to become tangible in the coming years and drive European market growth. However, without addressing current challenges, progress will remain out of reach. The market urgently needs clearer policies, reliable funding, and firm offtake agreements to move from ambition to real-world deployment.

Gabrielle Heal Hydrogen Research Manager at LCP Delta

Europe's industrial and manufacturing capacity is a real strength we can build on. However, the impact of the global trade disputes is complicating policymakers' decision-making. Timing is key, and so is having the conviction to act quickly and decisively. Europe will need to juggle decarbonising and, almost more importantly, incentivising industry to invest in Europe.

Striking the balance between staying the course and responding to market signals and shocks has never been trickier, so hydrogen remains in turbulent times for the coming year or so.

Brendan Murphy Head of Hydrogen at LCP Delta