Sunset or sunrise: the future of residential solar in France

France is at a turning point. While solar energy is central to meeting the challenges of the energy transition and electrification, its latest draft energy plan hints at a step backwards, despite the rising momentum in other European countries.

The French solar paradox

The updated Pluriannual Energy Program (PPE 3) outlines energy strategy from 2025 to 2035. But instead of raising ambition, it casts doubt on solar PV as long-term deployment targets have been softened. Sector specific goals have been blurred into broader “decarbonised energy” goals shifting attention toward nuclear and flexibility solutions like battery storage due to “solar overproduction that exceeds demand”, as argued by the French government.

The numbers tell the story: while President Macron had previously called for 75 GW - 100 GW of installed solar capacity by 2035, the new 2035 target in the PPE 3 sits between 65 and 90 GW. For a country aiming to lead on climate, it’s a mixed message at the worst possible time.

The solar market in France is already feeling the impact. Trade body, Enerplan and other market players are sounding the alarm, warning that eroding confidence could severely undermine progress just as momentum is building. Without long-term policy clarity, investment could stall, innovation could slip, and France’s leadership in the energy transition could falter.

In the residential and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) segments, the reduction in feed-in tariffs for systems up to 500kWp comes as no surprise to LCP Delta. While the trend toward self-consumption was expected, but the way support was withdrawn lacked coordination, creating uncertainty and making it harder for market players to plan ahead.

Residential solar: small steps, strong potential

Historically, the residential solar PV market in France lagged behind neighbouring countries, due to low electricity prices and limited incentives. We estimate that no more than 6% of the addressable market has been tapped – Germany in comparison has reached 24% of market penetration. But momentum is building. In 2024, rooftop solar installations grew by 15% year on year, bucking a wider European slowdown.

Yet just as growth is gathering pace, feed-in-tariffs have been cut. The government’s rationale is clear: empower homeowners to use what they generate, rather than rely on subsidies. Despite the ongoing policy uncertainty, we remain optimistic that the French residential solar PV market will stay on a stable path through to 2030. In our outlook, we project a modest ~5% CAGR for residential solar, driven in part by rising retail electricity prices and the increasing appeal of energy independence. A big part of the growth will focus on self-consumption.

And it started already. Today, self-consumption is becoming the norm. For the beginning of 2025, grid operator Enedis reported 729,000 PV installations for individual self-consumption, an almost 50% increase in just one-year. The shift is underway but is the infrastructure and support keeping up.

What's driving the solar wave?

The residential solar market in France remains relatively young, with healthy market dynamics that will likely sustain steady growth through to 2030. But, as self-consumption rises, optimisation will be key, especially via storage. And here, France is playing catch-up. Residential storage adoption remains limited due to the lack of targeted subsidies, relatively moderate electricity prices, and the absence of dynamic pricing that doesn’t reward flexible consumption.

However, the recent drop in feed-in tariffs may accelerate residential battery adoption. If selling excess solar is less rewarding, the case for keeping and storing it becomes stronger. This could catalyse a broader shift but only if the right policies and price signals follow.

At a crossroads: clarity needed, now

The biggest risk to France’s solar sector isn’t any single policy change, it’s inconsistency. Two steps forward, one step back. Long-term investment decisions can’t be made in a policy environment that shifts every two years based on the political mood around nuclear vs renewables.

What the sector needs is a stable, coherent vision. The combination of rooftop solar, storage, and flexibility could be a game-changer for French households and the energy transition.

But France is already falling behind on its solar deployment targets. Without clear direction, incentives and consistency, the gap between ambition and delivery will only widen.