GB Power Market Outlook

Our findings are that it won’t reach 95%, but it will get closer than many expect. LCP Delta's modelling forecasts that 83% of GB electricity generation will come from clean sources by 2030, up from 62% in 2021. The 95% target will not be met on the current trajectory, but under an accelerated build scenario (where network constraints are addressed and CfD procurement increases) clean generation could reach 90% by 2030, with the full target achievable by 2032. The gap is real, but it is not a reason to slow down.

LCP Delta's analysis assesses eight key technologies against their Clean Power 2030 target capacity ranges. While some are on course, offshore wind, onshore wind, solar and battery storage are all falling short of required build rates, with offshore wind facing the most acute delivery risk given its long development timelines. The GB Power Market Outlook 2026 report sets out technology-by-technology what is needed, and where the most impactful interventions lie.

The typical household electricity bill is forecast to fall modestly by 2030, as lower wholesale costs offset rising network and CfD charges. The more significant benefit is protection from gas price shocks: a near-clean power system could limit the bill impact of a major global gas disruption to a fraction of what households experienced in 2022. The report sets out the full bill breakdown by cost component and the policy changes that could go further.

Because the target is driving investment, policy and build at a pace that would not otherwise exist. Every additional clean generation reduces the hours in which gas sets the wholesale electricity price, improving energy security, reducing emissions, and insulating consumers from global fuel markets. By 2030, gas will set the electricity price in fewer than 50% of hours, down from 80% today. The target may not be reached on the dot, but the system it is creating is materially better than the alternative.