The new cost of wind
This content is AI generated, click here to find out more about Transpose™.
For terms of use click here.
Cannibalisation, PPA price pressure and Wholesale CfD pricing in Great Britain
Around Britain, wind has become one of the dominant sources of electricity generation. While this supports decarbonisation, it is also changing how electricity markets behave.
Our latest independent analysis, proposed by EDF, looks at what has changed since 2019, how wind cannibalisation is affecting offtaker revenues today, and what LCP Delta’s modelling suggests for PPAs and Wholesale CfDs through to 2035.
Who is this report for?
Whether you're pricing PPAs, assessing investment opportunities or evaluating future market design, this report helps you to understand how wind cannibalisation is changing commercial risk in GB power markets.
Read the report in full on Spark
Access the reportWhat you'll learn
-
Understand how increasing wind penetration is reducing capture prices relative to wholesale prices and changing project revenues.
-
How stronger links between wind output and market prices increase shaping costs, and why 11 of the last 13 seasons would have left a typical wind PPA offtaker out of pocket without incorporating this into the PPA strike price.
-
Explore how Wholesale CfDs could transfer pricing risk away from market participants to consumers, while leaving the underlying shaping costs in place.
-
See how LCP Delta's forward modelling shows wind capacity roughly doubling by 2035 and its share of GB generation rising from under 40% today to over 65%, and what that means for price formation throughout the decade.
Subscribe to our thinking
Get relevant insights, leading perspectives and event invitations delivered right to your inbox.
Get started to select your preferences.
Wind capture prices in Great Britain
More wind on the system is pushing down prices during periods of high generation, widening the gap between wholesale prices and the prices wind generators receive.
This growing capture price discount is one of the clearest signs of wind cannibalisation and is already affecting PPAs, project revenues and investment decisions.
Between Summer 2019 and Summer 2025, the average GB wind capture price discount widened from 3.2% below wholesale prices to 16.2%, highlighting how the economics of wind generation are changing as renewable penetration increases.
Wind's share of GB electricity generation is expected to continue rising through to 2035, making wholesale electricity prices increasingly weather-driven and changing the economics of renewable generation.
Our modelling shows that, under a central scenario, wind capacity more than doubles by 2035. As a result, wind PPA offtakers face growing commercial risk, with a typical contract becoming loss-making in 86% of simulated seasons.
