Longevity report

Are life expectancies bouncing back?

Our latest Longevity report explores whether emerging data signals the start of a new era, with record‑low death rates, rising life expectancy trends, and shifting industry assumptions. We explore the latest evidence and consider what it means for pension schemes and sponsors.

Understanding how emerging longevity trends impacts your scheme influences many of the decisions that you will need to make.

Key insights from this year’s report:

• Historic low death rates: 2026 data shows pensioner mortality back in line with pre-pandemic trends. The picture across different age groups is more complex.

• Ongoing NHS pressure: A&E waits remain high. Cancer treatment delays persist.

• Future longevity upside potential: Anti-obesity drugs (GLP-1s) and earlier cancer detection could materially improve survival and longevity.

• Insurers stabilising assumptions: It appears that the insurance industry have now largely reflected the full impact of the pandemic within their assumptions.

• Implication for trustees: Longevity expectations are shifting, so schemes should revisit assumptions as funding, surplus, and endgame outcomes are highly sensitive to them.

Why you should assess your longevity assumptions now 

• If you plan to run on: A realistic assessment of future longevity will allow you to appropriately assess the size of the surplus and the scope for any release of that surplus. You may also wish to quantify the longevity risk that you are running.

• If you plan to insure or use one the emerging endgame solutions: You should check that your journey plan is still on track as views on longevity have evolved since the pandemic.

• If you plan to use insurance strategically: If we are at an inflection point, could now be the optimal time to remove longevity risk.

If you'd like to discuss how the report's findings could affect your scheme's longevity assumptions, funding position or long-term strategy, we'd be delighted to hear from you.