Investment Uncut: Cycles and Swims with Peter Oppenheimer

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This episode was recorded on 15 February 2024 and therefore does not reflect any events after this date.

In this week’s episode, Mary Spencer and Lia Licietis chat to Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist & Head of Macro Research Europe at Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research Group. We discuss his two books on equity market cycles and how they relate to the market dynamics we’re seeing today.

Before we interview Peter, in light of International Women’s Day 2024, Jacob Shah turns the tables and interviews Mary. Mary explains what this year’s theme #inspireinclusion means to her, her views on being a woman in the investment industry and the progress she’d like to see.

With Peter we discuss:

• The challenge of melding bottom up and top down insights, over different time periods, as all investors are trying to do something slightly different.
• Why there’s cause for optimism, but the extent to which this is already reflected in market pricing.
• Cycles vs super cycles, and characteristics of the “postmodern” super-cycle we’re currently in.
• The role that technology and decarbonisation has to play.

What’s one thing you would like listeners to take away from this?

• People have a tendency to focus on what’s urgent and risk missing what’s important. Try to take a step back and consider a longer timeframe to really pick up structural changes.

Any recommendations for good books or podcasts:

• The Long Good Buy, Peter Oppenheimer
• Any Happy Returns, Peter Oppenheimer
• Act of Oblivion – Robert Harris