Mexico vs England: TransferLab identifies three key threats for England
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After defeating DR Congo with two late goals from Harry Kane, England will face Mexico in the round of 16 at the Azteca Stadium.
So far, Mexico have played 50 competitive fixtures at the stadium and have only lost twice. This is a worrying statistic for the England squad, especially given the altitude of 2,240 meters above sea level and the home advantage Mexico will have, with their passionate fans urging them on.
Mexico have also proven that they are a strong team, being one of only three teams to win all their group stage games, and one of two teams yet to concede a goal in the tournament. However, the Mexican squad is still largely unfamiliar to European audiences, partly because the national team's focus is on Liga MX (Mexico's domestic league).
Using our data scouting platform TransferLab and Mexico’s performance so far in the tournament, we have identified three key players who could cause problems for England.
The metrics below are the players’ percentiles, generated against the global player population at the same position. They measure the goal difference added by specific actions on the pitch rather than just the raw count of actions.
Julián Quiñones
With 33 goals in 31 games in the Saudi Pro League last season, Quiñones entered the tournament as one of the world's most in-form strikers. He has demonstrated this with two goals in the group stages, as well as Mexico’s first against Ecuador in the Round of 32, and will look to trouble England's back four.
Quiñones vs Guehi
England’s Marc Guéhi is likely to start at centre-back and will have much of the responsibility for containing Quiñones while marshalling an England defence that may need to play further back than in previous matches. This will prove difficult because England have yet to come up against a striker like Quiñones, who is willing to hold up the ball and use physicality to play between them. Quiñones can also provide an aerial threat off set pieces, despite the majority of his goals coming from range.
Roberto Alvarado
Alvarado leads the Mexican team in assists and turnovers coming out of the group stage, and has been key to Mexico's ability to win the ball high up the pitch and convert that into an attacking threat.
At his club, Guadalajara, his scoring record has diminished slightly in the last few seasons. He has moved into a more creative role, ranking in the 87th percentile for expected assists among forward players globally.
Alvarado vs O'Reilly
The English left-back Nico O’Reilly has been given freedom to drift into his preferred midfield role in possession, occasionally arriving in the box for a headed attempt on goal. However, Alvarado will exploit this to take advantage of the gap on the left hand side, and his recent performance against Ecuador showcased it. He knows how to win the ball in his defensive third and immediately play a pinpoint long ball that cuts out the entire defensive structure for a breakaway goal.
Gilberto Mora
Mora is the wonder kid of Mexican football, making his senior club debut with Tijuana at the age of 15. Now 17, he is the youngest player at the World Cup and the second youngest player ever to start a World Cup knockout match, behind Pele.
Mora vs Anderson
Mora has made three appearances for Mexico so far, starting for both of the most recent games. Despite not scoring or assisting, he has proved key to Mexico’s ability to progress the ball and unlock space out wide and through the midfield. During the game against Ecuador, he came up against Moises Caicedo and looked comfortable for the 60 minutes he played. Due to his age and slight lack of physicality, he rarely plays 90 minutes. However, his impact on the pitch and ability to keep the ball at his feet will put England’s Anderson under pressure.
Anderson has had a strong start to the tournament, with the highest average running speed in the England squad, covering more distance at high speed than any other player and ranking second only to Harry Kane for total distance covered. At high altitude, maintaining that level of physical output may prove difficult, but his ability to cut out passes through midfield could be key to preventing Mora from breaking the lines.
These three players will provide a different challenge for England, and with Mexico yet to concede a goal in the tournament, this appears to be the most evenly matched game for England so far. With questions still hanging over Tuchel about right-back selection and midfield configuration, those problems will be compounded by the threat Mexico provide.
TransferLab is a cutting–edge software solution developed and run in a unique collaboration between LCP and leading football consultancy Analytics FC.
TransferLab uses event data from over 100 men’s and 30 women’s leagues from around the world covering around 120,000 male and 30,000 female players. It uses advanced analytics to assess each player’s past performance and help predict their future performance.
