GB set to miss 2030 Clean Power target
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- Despite missing the 95% target, a near clean power system would significantly limit the amount of time that gas sets the wholesale price and reduce the customer electricity bill impact of any future major gas price shock to just 7% increase, compared to 24% without CfD-backed renewables on the system.
- 83% of Great Britain’s power generation is forecast to come from clean sources by 2030, falling short of the 95% target.
- Government must increase procurement of solar and onshore in the next two CfD auctions to allow these to reach their CP2030 target capacity, meanwhile network upgrades must be delivered within scheduled timelines to reduce use of gas to deal with constraints. This acceleration could increase clean power to 90% and the full Clean Power target is achievable by 2032, just two years later than planned.
- Gas use for power is forecast to fall by 38% by 2030, reducing current LNG imports by half.
By 2030 only 83% of GB electricity generation will be produced by clean power as defined under CP2030, with the 95% Clean Power target unlikely to be achieved until 2035.
While generation from clean power sources has risen steadily in recent years, increasing from 68% in 2020 to 74% by the end of 2025, deployment of key technologies remains short of what is needed to meet the target. LCP Delta’s GB Power Market Outlook found that despite reaching 83% of clean power in 2030 under current plans, a further 28GW of renewable build is required to meet the ambitious targets.
The report models several future scenarios for the decarbonisation of Great Britain’s electricity sector and the pathway to Clean Power 2030. It finds that even under the most ambitious “Accelerated Build” pathway1, the UK would not reach 95% clean power until 2032.
However, despite CP2030 falling short of its target, the measures taken in the past two years are still driving positive change to the system. Most notably, by 2030, the usage of gas will be reduced by 38% compared to 2024 (52% under Accelerated Build), and renewable capacity will have almost doubled resulting in CO2 emissions decreasing by 36% from today’s levels (ca. 46% under Accelerated Build). Gas will also go from setting the price 85% of the time in 2025 to less than 50% in 2030.
Importantly, GB’s clean power system will significantly protect consumers from gas price shocks. In 2030, a gas shock in line with what the market experienced due to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz would only lead to household bills increasing by just 4%. This compares to an equivalent increase of 24% under a scenario with no CfD renewables on the system.
A key reason GB is on track to fall short of CP2030 is the use of gas generation to deal with network constraints. The report shows that on the current trajectory, in 2030 27TWh of renewable generation will have to be turned down due to the inability to transport energy to where there is the demand, with 16TWh of gas turned up instead. However, when implementing measures to reduce constraints under the accelerated build scenario — accelerating key network upgrades in East Anglia from 2031 to 2030, improving existing infrastructure and implementing reforms to the balancing mechanisms — clean power could reach 90%.
In addition to protecting customers from price shocks, a clean power system reduces customer bills. With an accelerated build to 2030, the average household electricity bill could decline by around £40 in 2030 compared to 2026. While measures to move policy costs from older renewable schemes to general taxation and removing VAT could cut the average bill by an additional £64.
To get closer to achieving CP2030, LCP Delta is urging the government to move faster on the policies that matter most: boosting renewable deployment, fixing grid connection delays, delivering network upgrades and implementing constraint management measures. Swift action will help unlock investment, lower system costs and keep the GB power system on track for a secure, clean energy future.
While our analysis shows that Great Britain is unlikely to meet its 2030 Clean Power target, the direction of travel is clear: by the end of the decade, the energy system will have undergone a profound transformation. Renewable capacity is set to provide over 70% of our power needs in just a few years, weaning the country off volatile international gas markets whilst halving the power sector carbon emissions compared to 2025. Great Britain is firmly on the path towards a power system dominated by clean generation.
[1] The Accelerated Build pathway assumes an increase in 2030 capacity for key technologies including onshore wind, solar and storage. It also assumes network upgrades and constraint management measures are implemented to reduce gas use for constraints.
