How we provided our client with detailed forecasts of the different revenue streams available to a battery in the Irish power market.
The background
We were commissioned to provide battery asset forecasts for a battery asset location in Ireland, across a range of future scenarios. This included forecasts of wholesale and balancing margins, DS3 revenues and embedded costs or benefits.
Our solution
LCP’s I-SEM analysis is conducted using our EnVision modelling framework. This includes fully integrated modelling of Ireland and GB, including the latest policy developments in both markets. It is specifically designed to capture the dynamics of all markets: wholesale, capacity, balancing, system constraints and DS3 services. We model wind and solar plant output stochastically by sampling from a large historic database (35+ years) of wind speeds and solar intensities at granular locations. The high wind penetration and small system size of Ireland creates additional complexity in the operation of the system. This results in a high degree of uncertainty, particularly in the DS3 regime, and we provided different scenarios to capture this uncertainty.
Once we have this information we used LCP’s proprietary algorithm to simulate the dispatch of storage assets across the energy markets, considering the additional revenues available from providing DS3 services (particularly in times of low synchronous generation). In this algorithm storage assets can optimise their behaviour and decide on their dispatch based on the fundamentals of their technical characteristics and active market participants.
The outcome
The results from forecasting were used to base decisions on whether to invest in battery assets, and if so what specifications (duration and size) to build.
